Civilizations share a set of characteristics: subsistence on agriculture, efficient distribution systems, diverse settlements, state structures, social stratification, and job specialization (Lanning, 1967). However, unlike historical civilizations that were defined by clear geographical boundaries and isolated governance, modern civilization is politically and economically interconnected to encompass the globe. Therefore, “our civilization” consists of the entire human race. Similarly, “collapse” in a historical sense is easier to define as we have the benefit of hindsight; it is “a society that is suddenly smaller, less differentiated and heterogeneous, and characterized by fewer special parts” (Tainter, 1988, p.38). Because our world today is a sum of economic, political, and military alliances, a traditional definition of “collapse” will not suffice. Instead, collapse constitutes the end of order and the eventual extinction of the human race.
Under these defined terms, our world is in danger of collapse from both historical and novel threats.
Historical Civilizations
Theories of collapse fall into major themes, including, depletion of vital resources, intruders, class conflict, and elite mismanagement (Tainter, 1988). This paper will focus on resource depletion and mismanagement, as these are most relevant to assessing the risk of collapse today.
Civilizations are founded upon essential resources. When we discovered farming, we moved beyond communities of hundreds to civilizations of thousands. Cultivating arable land required technological innovation, collaboration, and means to maintain order and infrastructure. As populations grew, these systems became exponentially complex and challenging to manage. Resource depletion has been historically attributed to two explanations: human mismanagement and climatic changes (Tainter, 1988).
Human mismanagement of resources can manifest in various forms, such as overexploitation and deforestation. Over time, vital resources diminish and often harm the environment’s capacity to resupply them, leading to scarcity and various socioeconomic problems. In the Western Roman Empire, excessive deforestation and grazing led to heightened temperature fluctuations, intensified wind speeds, and reduced humidity. Thus, rainfall interception was compromised, increasing runoff and accelerating land erosion (Hughes, 1975). Ultimately, arable land was lost, and the following food shortages and population decline contributed to collapse.
If complex civilizations cannot address resource depletion before total collapse, there were likely problems with managerial systems (Tainter, 1988). Historical patterns indicate that leaders and elites prioritized short-term fiscal and personal goals, often at the expense of the working-class majority. To alleviate problems, leaders increased taxes and delegated power to local leaders, weakening the central government (Eisenstadt, 1963). In the Western Roman Empire, an exploited peasantry class and heavy taxation under poor leadership triggered the creation of independent fiefdoms, leaving the population more vulnerable to invasions (Caudwell, 1972).
Naturally occurring climate shifts are also attributed to resource depletion. In the Western Roman Empire, significant droughts in Central Asia prompted nomadic Huns to invade Europe, weakening the Empire’s military defenses and marking its end in the 5th century. In the Eastern Roman Empire, the warm and stable period known as the Roman Climate Optimum gave way to the Late Antique Little Ice Age, leading to declining food supplies and disorganization (Weiner, 2018).
Depletion of resources naturally led to political strife and military campaigns to satiate the civilization's needs, further exacerbating existing problems as the focus shifted away from resource production and management.
Modern Civilizations
Today, our civilization is significantly more advanced and interconnected than ancient civilizations. While some historical factors of collapse have intensified, new threats have also emerged. Furthermore, challenges to our civilization are much more difficult to tackle in our interconnected world as they require immense collaborative effort from all actors to overcome.
Recent developments in AI technology have sparked existential debates and concerns about risks we may be unprepared to mitigate. For instance, AI is already increasing the lethality of wars with rapid automation and precision strikes. Furthermore, improvements in positioning and timing will make it difficult to counter attacks from belligerent groups. Proliferation of such weapons to both state and non-state actors with radical intent heightens the risk of deadly combat and damage (National Intelligence, 2021).
Beyond warfare, AI has ushered in new possibilities for human extinction. Philosopher David Chalmers described the “Singularity” as an event where AI surpasses human intelligence, setting off an unpredictable “sequence of ever more intelligent machines” to a point of no return (Chalmers, 2010, p.2). Researchers posit that AI could out-invent humans, develop incomprehensible weapons, and even carry out human extinction (Hawking et al., 2014).
It is clear that humanity is on the cusp of a new revolution in AI. Nevertheless, as these scenarios, though feasible, remain theoretical, I will focus on the more pressing and documented challenges for our civilization: fertility rate, resource exploitation, and social turmoil.
Fertility Paradox
Experts predict the population will grow to 10.9 billion by 2100 (United Nations, 2019). However, critics point to declining fertility rates to argue that population growth is not urgent (Kelly, 2013). Though the global fertility rate is declining, this decline is drastically unevenly distributed, exacerbating issues of labor market segregation and economic inequality. A study projects that the proportion of births in low-income regions will nearly double from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100, while fertility rates in high-income countries will decline below the 2.1 status quo replacement level, potentially inhibiting economic productivity and slowing GDP growth (GBD 2021 Fertility, 2024). For instance, South Korea’s fertility rate is projected to decline to 0.68 in 2024 (Lee & Kim, 2024). In other countries with sub 2.1 fertility rates, entire communities that depend on a healthy workforce will slow, and reliance on immigrant workforces will become necessary. This segregation of opportunity-providing host nations and taking foreign workers drives higher internal tension and social division. For instance, Germany witnessed a resurgence and radicalization of anti-immigrant groups like AfD. Such groups have gained traction and radicalized, particularly in eastern Germany, where economic productivity tends to be lower (Zhou, 2024).
Resource Exploitation
Yet, the most significant concern is not the sheer number of people but rather their environmental impact as standards of living in developing countries improve. Today, average GDP per capita is 4.4 times higher than in the 1950s, indicating that standards of living have improved significantly (Roser, 2019). Inhabitants of First World countries consume 32 times more resources than those of Third World countries (Diamond, 2005). When Third World countries’ per-capita consumption inevitably rises to First World levels, there would be a net increase in world consumption rates without concrete solutions to replenish resources. Some may posit that developed nations can block developing nations’ efforts to modernize by discontinuing aid. This is very unlikely as aiding developing countries serves the self-interests of First World countries; developed countries provide more aid to geographically proximate nations with strong market and migration ties (Bermeo, 2018).
Beyond resource depletion, developing nations have greater potential to harm the environment as they modernize due to their lack of legislative oversight. Public awareness, which influences preference for legislative changes, is relatively low in developing countries. Researchers found that awareness levels were typically over 90% in the developed world, whereas most developing countries had never heard of climate change (Lee et al., 2015). In Indonesia, 76% of surveyors claim they know only “a little” or “have never heard” of climate change (Leiserowitz et al., 2023). A lack of political commitment to mitigation manifests in the inconsistent goals and policies across Indonesia’s ministries (Emmrich et al., 2021).
The harm to our environment and its ability to support a greater population is further exacerbated by the need for new “essential” resources like lithium and nickel in the modern transition to green energy (Jowitt & McNulty, 2021). In a “race for what’s left,” developed countries are scrambling for such resources in foreign lands before deposits approach exhaustion (Klare, 2021). A study found that as the leading lender to Latin America and the Caribbean, China deployed $138 billion in loans to secure resources (Robles, 2023). Paradoxically, extracting and mining minerals require significant water usage, resulting in habitat destruction and air pollution, thus exacerbating the climate crisis (Bercetche, 2023). Already a "code red," climate change has heightened the risks of catastrophic floods, droughts, and natural disasters (Ripple et al., 2022, p.1149). The European Climate Risk Assessment warns that if decisive action is not taken, thousands will die from heat waves, and flood damage will exceed EUR 1 trillion annually (European Climate, 2024). In addition to much-discussed apocalyptic scenarios resulting from climate change, it will exacerbate social and economic instability and ignite political violence as a threat multiplier (Abdullah, 2023).
One may assert that increased demand for these resources is creating jobs and urbanizing areas that are presently underdeveloped. Although true initially, countries relying on a single industry become vulnerable to changes in international dynamics, making exploitation unsustainable. A notorious example is Detroit, Michigan. Once the capital of the auto industry, Detroit was the United State’s fourth most populous city, with a median household income 13% above the national average (“Social Explorer”, 2013). However, competition from foreign countries and changing technology led to Detroit’s industrial decline and urban decay (Padnani, 2019). The city declared bankruptcy in 2013, and today, Detroit grapples with high crime rates and poverty (“World Population”, 2023). Fortunately, Detroit’s woes are primarily localized to the region as the U.S. still boasts a robust and diversified economy capable of absorbing shocks to its system. However, if this scenario were to unfold in regions suffering unrest or lacking strong governance, the devastation would threaten long-term development. In Zambia, for example, simulated models revealed that the collapse of the copper mining industry through failing production and exports reduced the GDP by 16% (Löfgren et al., 2002).
Social Turmoil & Division
Both the “Fertility Paradox” and “Resource Exploitation” are root causes of immigration and social tension. Researchers found a causal relationship between climate change and political instability in 16 of the 18 Middle Eastern and North African countries, revealing that climate change is a threat multiplier in unstable territories (Sofuoğlu & Ay, 2020). Residents of nations that are most vulnerable to climate change migrate to international cities for new opportunities, while declining fertility rates in developed nations increase their likelihood of accepting foreign workers. The shifting of the world population into urban developed nations creates social instability. Often, immigrants are met with social, political, and economic resistance, as evident in the 2015 European Crisis (“Migrant Crisis”, 2015). When these problems escalate globally, the possibility of violent conflicts and extremism increases. For instance, flawed policies in water and agriculture have marginalized specific populations in Iraq, leading to fertile ground for ISIS recruitment, as they offer resources and services the state fails to provide (Hassan, Born & Nordqvist 2018).
Some may argue that while refugees cause unrest, the situation is minor and won’t lead to collapse. However, civil uprisings and discontent from immigration have the potential to do greater harm with the advent of technology such as AI. Users can spread false information and spark greater controversy at best, and at worst, can allow criminals, extremist groups, and rogue states to weaponize AI to inflict irreparable harm. With the proliferation of such technology, it is easier for individuals, many of whom are state-backed and driven by ideological differences, to carry out attacks in cyberspace within foreign lands. For example, hackers associated with the Chinese government have targeted US officials in the Department of Justice, Congress, and companies of economic importance (“Office of Public Affairs”, 2024).
Conclusion
Our civilization faces grave dangers from both historical factors of resource depletion and mismanagement to more modern threats of unevenly distributed population growth, climate change, and social unrest. The “race for what’s left” and unevenly distributed population growth cause damage to our environment and resource pools while driving waves of people to developed nations. These problems are exacerbated by a complex network of economic and political alliances and the separation of resource-exploiting and providing nations. The resulting social and political tensions are heightened to dangerous levels with the advent of AI and its potential to harm when utilized as a tool by extremist groups and actors, thus putting our civilization in danger of collapse.
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